It is crazy in the economic cycle Every fall every 4 8 development

 Every New Year, when predicting future macroeconomic trends have become economic circles The term most people worrying about is the K, as investors spent staring line graph, to beg from those red pillars and green columns, like changes in the dug treasure, simple prediction, it seems that determine the

Typically, the It is called the rising phase of economic prosperity, the highest point called the peak, then the peak is the economic gloom and doom from the turning point; then enter the downward phase of the economy - recession, the recession of the economy into recession, the recession is called the lowest point bottom. And this time, it is also by the decline of economic change for another turning point. Can be found by the gloom and doom, and by the failure of that change for the two

Recently, in a seminar on energy issues, economists Professor Huang Taiyan judge China's economic cycle presents a simple method of refreshing. He believes that only need to remember two numbers, we can grasp is the image of the periodic law of China's economic development.

The first number is 8, the Chinese like 8, because China's economy could be very interesting, 1-8 on the decline. For example in 2008, most people believe that economic decline is a global financial crisis. But in fact endogenous economic Earlier in the year generating capacity, electricity consumption began to decline, the industrial added value continues to decline, the stock market as early as in the previous October 2007 began to send signals downward. 10 years forward in 1998, the Chinese economy after the Asian financial crisis, the worst year for 5 consecutive years of deflation followed, step by step until 2003 to come out. In 1988, the reform and opening up the most serious inflation, CPI rose 18%, followed by social unrest. Pushed forward again in 1978, 1968, 1958, China's economy is undergoing a major adjustment or disaster year.

Professor Huang Taiyan appear in the Chinese economy seems to be more like the number 4 and China's economy in 2004 out from the deflation, followed by China's economic situation is excellent. 1994, Comrade Deng Xiaoping's southern tour in 1992, after the speech, the Chinese just usher in a new development cycle. China's reform and opening up in 1984 a great success of the year. China's economy in 1974, engaged in consolidation, the effect is good. 1964 from three years of natural disasters to come out. The first 1954 five-year plan is about to usher in a time of great development.

From these two figures can be amazing what conclusion? Obviously, this year is 2011, the worst of the Professor Huang Taiyan conclusion is this: This year, China is still in the middle stage of economic adjustment, and ultimately, the contradictions and difficulties, it can not be too optimistic.

In fact, this seems a little joke component of economic analysis, but also implies a time period of 10 years as a In other words, the new China's economic rise is possible to follow a five-year, five years down the If so, Chinese entrepreneurs, investors, including ordinary people, you can easily respond to and organize your time and pocketbook of the. Trend not help people, economic decline in harvest of further efforts are few, are likely to rise to the money of the eyes closed.

After the man entered the industrial age, dominated the economic life of capital rules. Thus the First, the French economist Zhu Glasgow 1860 to put forward a 9 to 10 years of economic cycles. 1923, British economist Kitchen believes that the economic cycle is typically 3 to 4 years. Their eyes seem to have there limitations. Famous Russian economist Kondratieff proposed a period of 50 to 60 years of economic cycles, and a detailed breakdown from 1789 to 1920, the three major world economy, the big cycle. More later, the U.S. economy in the construction industry booming Kuznets and decline as the main indicator, a 15 to 20 years

Economist Schumpeter is the cycle theory, In 1936 he was a major technological innovation from the perspective of the economic cycle, that a long period, including 6 each Secondary cycles, each cycle consists of three short-period in the. Short cycle of about 40 months, the period of about 9 to 10 years, long period of 48 to 60 years. As a result, he will post industrialized human society is divided into three long periods: the first long period of 80 years from the 18th century to 1842, is the The second long-period from 1842 to 1897, is the In each long cycle of innovation still contains medium and small innovation triggered by the

Schumpeter's cycle theory may be perfect, but still a little It recalls the history of mankind has a strong industrial guide, can be carries it to predict the future, there are still great uncertainty. For example, in 1929 and 1931 world economic crisis of the Great Depression, is the third long period of what position? Does the world economy since World War II entered the information into the characteristics of a fourth long cycle? Further questioning, the 2008 global financial crisis, what is level? Long period of the fifth start? Estimate the answer will be varied.

Karl Marx and the classical theory of economic crisis altogether thrown away the After his studies after the law of capital, but simply warned that the nature of capital is concerned, it is always cyclical committed a disease called Bubble economy is the Clearly, the 2008 financial crisis is a typical

In fact, investors have to Waves in the stock market line graph K, has always been cyclical rise and fall. However, from in line, monthly, weekly, daily to the time-sharing plans, see judge, trend forecasting, in the end is based on what level of K line graph to observe? From a technical point of view, the daily trend may be rising, and in the weekly or monthly online it may be the apparent decline.

Economics as a

U.S. investment guru Warren Buffett simply use Clearly, in the wise eyes of investors, But Buffett never tell anyone a clear time of fear and greed. He just said, This seems to have become a purely psychological game: you know very well,

Ma Jian Tong National Bureau of Statistics said in a press conference for inflation, he believes that Why? The expectation can affect people's behavior, the expected increase in inflation is likely to encourage speculation behavior, or at least to the soil suitable for cultivation of inflation. Therefore, he emphasized, for this price level, the government

Unfortunately, the National Bureau of Statistics does not Forecast period may not accurately describe the real trend of economic development, but may help to For example, remember Professor Huang Taiyan (All rock)